Why a Richmond house price crash looks increasingly unlikely

Every few weeks, another headline appears warning that house prices are about to crash.

The reason changes each time. One month it is mortgage rates. The next it is inflation.

More recently, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the Middle East have been blamed for higher borrowing costs and weaker buyer confidence.

Yet despite all these predictions, the housing market continues to frustrate the pessimists.

That does not mean the market is booming. It is not. Homes are taking longer to sell than they did during the post-pandemic frenzy (91 days in 2026 vs 55 days in 2022).

Buyers are more selective, whilst sellers face more competition (746k homes on the market today in the UK vs 481k in July 2021). There is a huge difference between a market slowing down and a market crashing.

And that distinction matters. House price crashes are not normally caused by higher mortgage rates and distressed home sellers. That was the defining characteristic of the housing downturn between 1988 and 1992 and again between 2007 and 2011.

It was not simply that borrowing became more expensive. It was that large numbers of homeowners were forced to sell. Repossessions increased, job losses rose, credit became harder to obtain, and so the supply of properties on the market overwhelmed demand (people able to buy).

To judge the situation, I must look at two things. Unemployment and the property market:

Unemployment in Richmond

The key indicator is the unemployment figure for the Richmond Park constituency which is 2.6% (and it was 2.5% twelve months ago). Nationally, it's 4.9%. This is up 0.3% on the year but down 0.3% on the latest quarter.

The property market in Richmond

There are 863 homes for sale in Richmond, of which 310 are sold subject to contract (SSTC). That means over one in every 3 homes (35.9%) being marketed has already found a buyer. That is a balanced market.

Yet despite that increased choice, buyers are still buying.

The challenge is that sellers are having to work harder to attract buyers. The average Richmond home currently takes around 104 days from coming to market to finding a buyer (SSTC). That feels slow compared with the extraordinary conditions seen in 2021 and early 2022, but it is not evidence of a collapsing market. Instead, it shows a more normal market where presentation and pricing matter, and where buyers can compare one property against another. The number of price reductions is perhaps the most telling statistic.

In the last month, approximately 11.4% of homes on the market in Richmond have reduced their asking price.

Some commentators interpret this as evidence that a crash is beginning, yet I disagree. Firstly, this level of reduction is normal for our local market and has been the case for the last 5 years.

Secondly, price reductions are not a sign of distress. They are often a sign that sellers started too high in the first place. There is a significant difference between a Richmond homeowner deciding to reduce their asking price by £10k to secure a buyer and a homeowner being forced to sell because they cannot pay their mortgage. One is market adjustment; the other is distress. And right now, there is very little evidence of widespread distress.

So, what will happen to the Richmond property market?

Housing markets behave so differently from stock markets. Shares can rise or fall dramatically in a matter of hours, yet property markets rarely do so. Instead, they tend to adjust by reducing transaction volume, lengthening sales cycles, and becoming more price sensitive.

The adjustment process is like stopping a supertanker. Slow, gradual and, frankly, rather boring. That may not make for exciting headlines, but history suggests it is far more common than sudden nationwide price crashes.

Another factor often overlooked is affordability. Many people assume affordability can only improve if house prices fall. That is not necessarily true. Affordability can improve through wage growth or inflation that reduces the real value of housing costs over time. It can also improve with modest house price growth, rising incomes, and mortgage rates gradually easing in the years ahead.

In fact, much of what we have witnessed over the last two years has been exactly that. Richmond house prices have broadly moved sideways whilst incomes have continued to rise. The result is a slow and steady improvement in affordability without the dramatic correction many commentators have predicted.

For Richmond homeowners considering a move, this creates an important dilemma.

Many are waiting for mortgage rates to fall. Others are waiting for prices to rise. Some are waiting for a crash that may never arrive. Yet life rarely waits for perfect market conditions.

People move for jobs, schools, retirement, growing families, divorce, downsizing, and countless other personal reasons. The property market simply provides the backdrop. The lesson from history and today's Richmond market data is simple.

House price crashes require distressed sellers

And right now, there is little evidence that Richmond has enough distressed sellers to create the sort of collapse that many commentators continue to predict. That does not mean every home will sell quickly. It does not mean every asking price will be achieved, and it certainly does not mean Richmond home sellers can ignore the competition.

But it does suggest that the most likely outcome for the Richmond property market over the next few years is not a dramatic crash.

Instead, expect a market that keeps moving forward, with modest adjustments rather than sudden drops, one carefully priced home at a time.

Sara Thompson-Morton, Founder, S A Morton Real Estate

30 Lion Street, Richmond - Upon -Thames, TW9 1RB